People in the West (especially in safe places like Australia and the US) generally assume that things always revert to a generally "fine" equilibrium. They generally assume that things always land somewhere "good enough" in the end. However, those people don't understand that since WW2, we've lived in an unusually stable part of history where things have gone very well for a very long time.
There's no guarantee that this fortunate window of history will continue. In fact, it's likely that it was a momentary blip, and we will revert to the historical mean: disruption, violence, and chaos.
With this in mind, here are some predictions to consider…
- Trump's flaunting of the rule of law may either lead to full-blown fascism in the US (worst case) or continued erosion of norms and extreme polarization (best case). This will continue to accelerate the heating up of the culture war, increasingly turning it into a shooting war.
- Israel + US's flaunting of international law may lead to increasing instability as other countries continue to push their luck using Israel/US as inspiration, justification, and tactical demonstration. Trump/US's increased isolationism and bullying will only make things worse.
- Confidence in US leadership/currency/democarcy may lead to a sudden and dramatic shift in global power dynamics as the damn breaks. This could lead to a rush to fill the power vacuum and seismic shifts in everything from currencies to geopolitical conflicts.
- AI intelligence and effectiveness may continue to accelerate, disrupting global labor markets. This will further increase political and cultural instability. This may cause breakthroughs in healthcare, energy, etc, or it may rapidly displace people from their work. This could crater incomes, livelihoods, and people's sense of purpose.
- The top 10 companies in the world (likely the Magnificent 7 + a few more) will concentrate enormous wealth and value creation thanks to the concentration of their powerful AI foundation models and AI-powered applications. This will exacerbate the divide between the haves and have-nots among companies on the stock market. The gaps between the leaders and everyone else will increase.
- Many of the things above involve negative feedback loops, so it's hard to imagine reversing out of them. HOWEVER, there MIGHT be a backlash to some or many of the things above, which causes sudden reversals. These reversals may cause yet more disruptions and even violence. However, they may also mitigate the worst of the outcomes above.
In short, it will be an era of intense change and disruption.
It will likely be painful and difficult for the vast majority of people.
I hope I'm wrong.
I fear I'm not.
Brace yourself.